Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 July 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of numerous C-class flares. The largest of these was a C9/1n at 0823 UTC from Region 412 (N16E05), which was also accompanied by type II and type IV radio sweeps. Region 412 has shown steady growth with the emergence of new magnetic flux during the past 24 hours. Region 410 (S12E12) also showed steady growth and was the only other source for C-class flares. Region 410 has some mixed magnetic polarities and could develop a delta magnetic configuration. Region 409 (N16E27) continues to be the largest region on the disk but continues to show decline and simplification. New Region 414 (S02E71) rotated into view today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event over the next three days, with regions 409, 410, and 412 the most likely sources.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. Today's solar wind continues to show the presence of a high-speed coronal hole solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with a few isolated active periods for the next two days. Unsettled to active levels are expected for the third day. The increase on day three may occur as a possible response to activity associated with today's C9 flare event.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
Class M45%45%45%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jul 139
  Predicted   18 Jul-20 Jul  140/135/140
  90 Day Mean        17 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul  023/048
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jul  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  015/012-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%45%45%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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