Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 July 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of three, low-level C-class flares from Region 410 (S12E28). This group showed emerging flux and has developed some magnetic complexity. However, the field intensity and sunspot area are still relatively small. Region 409 (N16E27) continues to be the largest group on the disk but showed overall decay and some simplification. Region 409 was quiet and stable during the past 24 hours. Two new regions were assigned today: Region 412 (N16E19) and Region 413 (N18E49).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low. There continues to be a chance, however, for an isolated M-class event over the next three days. Region 409 is the most likely source for energetic flares, but Region 410 might also produce an M-flare if the current growth trend continues.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to major storm levels. An initially active field attained storm levels after 0300 UTC and continued at storm levels through 1500 UTC. Conditions returned to active levels from 1500 UTC through the end of the period. The increase in activity was associated with a slight increase in solar wind speed (600 to 650 km/s) and a noticeable increase in total magnetic field in the solar wind (ranging from 10 to 15 nT). The solar wind signatures are consistent for the most part with a high speed solar wind stream originating from a favorably positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active with minor storm periods during the next 24 hours as the current disturbance persists. A decrease to unsettled to active is expected on the second and third days as the high speed solar wind should gradually decline.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jul 133
  Predicted   17 Jul-19 Jul  130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        16 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul  015/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jul  025/045
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  020/030-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm45%30%30%
Major-severe storm15%10%10%

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