Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 July 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of a few low-level C-class flares from Region 409 (N15E41). Region 409 showed growth with the development of new spots in the trailing portion of the region. The penumbra in the region has developed to form a compact distribution of spots, suggesting that a delta configuration may form if the current trend continues. A seven degree filament near (N41E11) disappeared between 1046 UTC and 1211 UTC. New Region 411 (N16E62) was assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next three days, with Region 409 as the most likely source of M-class flares. There is a slight chance for major flare activity from Region 409 if the current trend continues.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. An initially active geomagnetic field reached minor storm levels from 0000-0600 UTC. Active to minor storm levels were also observed between 0900-1200 UTC. Conditions have been unsettled since 1200 UTC. The activity increase was seen in response to a jump in solar wind velocity and density accompanied by a southward turning of Bz between 14/2100 UTC and 15/0100 UTC. Solar wind conditions remained elevated for the remainder of the day, ranging mostly between 550 to 600 km/s. The solar wind data appear to be consistent with a brief interval of a co-rotating interaction region followed by a high-speed, coronal-hole-driven solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be active, with a chance for isolated minor storm periods, during the next 24 hours as a solar coronal hole rotates through a geoeffective position. A decline to unsettled to active levels is expected on the second day and a return to mostly unsettled levels is expected by the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jul 126
  Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul  125/123/121
  90 Day Mean        15 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  013/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jul  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%40%30%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm35%25%20%
Major-severe storm20%15%10%

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