Viewing archive of Monday, 14 July 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 409 (N15E55) produced several C-class events through the period. The largest was a C8 flare at 14/0120 UTC which was optically correlated with the SXI imagery. This region has grown in white light area and sunspot count and exhibits a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominately low. Region 409 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily unsettled to active through the period. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible with the passage of a coronal hole high speed wind stream
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jul 127
  Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul  130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        14 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  009/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jul  018/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

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