Viewing archive of Monday, 14 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 409 (N15E55)
produced several C-class events through the period. The largest was
a C8 flare at 14/0120 UTC which was optically correlated with the
SXI imagery. This region has grown in white light area and sunspot
count and exhibits a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominately low. Region 409 has the potential to produce an
isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily unsettled to active through the period.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible with the passage of a
coronal hole high speed wind stream
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 127 Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 018/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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