Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 July 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 397 (N12W87) produced two M-class flares, an M2.0 at 09/2238Z, and an M3.6 at 10/1412Z with an associated Type II radio sweep. Region 397 appears to be decaying as it passes the west limb. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate, with a chance of isolated M-class flares from Regions 397 or 400.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active to minor storm conditions on days one and two due to elevated solar wind speeds as a coronal hole rotates into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
Class M50%45%40%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jul 123
  Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul  130/125/120
  90 Day Mean        10 Jul 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jul  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%25%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%30%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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