Viewing archive of Monday, 7 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Although
Region 397 (N12W52) produced the majority of today's activity, all
events were limited to B and C-class flares. This region has
undergone slight decay during the period but retains the delta
magnetic structure in the central portion of the spot cluster.
Region 400 (N05W10) also decreased in penumbral coverage over the
past 24 hours although the gamma structure remains intact. Regions
402 (S12W44), 403 (S18E54, and 404 (S10E64) were newly numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 397 continues to exhibit the
potential to produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. Elevated
solar wind speeds and periods of sustained southward Bz allowed for
the observed intervals of isolated active conditions. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to isolated active levels
throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jul 133 Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 135/140/135 90 Day Mean 07 Jul 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 012/015-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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