Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low to moderate levels.
There was an M2.3 x-ray flare from Region 400 (N05E03) which
occurred on 06 July at 0032 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. The potential for M-class flare activity is
still good from Regions 397 (N11W39) and 400 (N05E03).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
coronal hole which influenced the previous days activity has moved
out of geoeffective range. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence
at geostationary altitudes has been at moderate levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next 24 hours.
On day two, there is a chance for a weak enhancement in the solar
wind particles at earth due to a coronal mass ejection which
occurred on 04 July at 1458 UTC. This will elevate the geomagnetic
field to unsettled to minor storm levels, but should quickly return
to quiet to unsettled levels by the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jul 130 Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 130/135/140 90 Day Mean 06 Jul 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 010/015-018/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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