Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels. A few C-class
flares have occurred, all from Region 397 (N12W20).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There still exists a fair potential for
M-class flare activity from Region 397 (N12W20) and to a lesser
degree, Region 400 (N04E23).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels. There
is still a strong influence from a favorably positioned coronal
hole, keeping the solar wind speeds elevated to around 750 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next 24
hours, falling off to quiet to active levels for day two, then
returning to unsettled to minor storm levels on day three. The
coronal hole currently elevating the solar wind speeds will rotate
out of geoeffective position in the next 24 hours, but that will be
followed on the third day by a glancing blow from a coronal mass
ejection which occurred on 04 July at 1458 UTC.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 142 Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 144/148/148 90 Day Mean 05 Jul 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 015/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 021/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 020/020-015/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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