Viewing archive of Friday, 4 July 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions 397 (N12W10) and 400 (N04E33) produced several C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was a C7.2 at 04/1458 UTC from Region 400, which was accompanied by a weak Type II radio sweep. Region 397 continues to have two small delta configurations in the trailer portion of its group, and Region 400 continues to show steady activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be at moderate levels. There is a good chance for M-class flare activity from Regions 397 and 400.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. Two periods of minor storming occurred one at 04/0600 UTC and another at 04/1200 UTC. Solar wind speeds have been sustained at around 750 km/s throughout the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly active to minor storm levels for the next day due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. A gradual decline to unsettled to active levels is expected on the second day.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
Class M65%65%65%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jul 140
  Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul  141/144/145
  90 Day Mean        04 Jul 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  014/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jul  025/028
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  020/025-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm15%10%10%

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