Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 June 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity remained low. Region 397 (N10E65) is now
fully visible near east limb, and is an elongated sunspot group with
a larger leader. Intermittent C-class activity has occurred in the
region. Otherwise, the remainder of the disk was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. The
magnetosphere remained under the influence of a high speed stream
for another day, emanating from the large coronal hole in the
western solar hemisphere. The energetic electron flux at GOES was
again high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at primarily active to minor storm levels.
Episodic major storming is a distinct possibility. The influence of
the high speed stream will be felt through July 1.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jun 124 Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 28 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 021/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 020/032 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 020/035-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
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