Viewing archive of Friday, 27 June 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity continued low. Newly numbered Region 397
(N09E72) was the main flare producer, its largest being a C3 at 0321
UTC. This region seems to be the leader of old Region 375, being
positioned just ahead of the longitude where 375 was last seen. One
other new group, Region 396 (S04W12) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low,
pending further development in Region 397.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels in the
past 24 hours. Activity intensified as the solar wind would gust, at
times reaching more than 750 km/s during the period. The large E-W
oriented coronal hole is the source of this high speed stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high
levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next three
days.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jun 124 Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 130/130/135 90 Day Mean 27 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 016/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 022/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 020/020-020/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
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