Viewing archive of Friday, 27 June 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity continued low. Newly numbered Region 397 (N09E72) was the main flare producer, its largest being a C3 at 0321 UTC. This region seems to be the leader of old Region 375, being positioned just ahead of the longitude where 375 was last seen. One other new group, Region 396 (S04W12) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low, pending further development in Region 397.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels in the past 24 hours. Activity intensified as the solar wind would gust, at times reaching more than 750 km/s during the period. The large E-W oriented coronal hole is the source of this high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
Class M 25%25%25%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Jun 124
  Predicted    28 Jun-30 Jun  130/130/135
  90 Day Mean        27 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  016/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Jun  022/030
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  020/020-020/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 40%40%40%
Major-severe storm 20%20%20%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 50%50%50%
Major-severe storm 25%25%25%

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