Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 June 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity remained low. The day's largest event
was a C2/EPL from N13E90 at 1919 UTC. This eruption was from an
active region soon to appear on east limb. Visible in x-ray imagery,
it is most likely the return of old region 375, the site of M and X
class activity last rotation. Elsewhere, two new regions were
numbered: Region 394 (N08E22) and Region 395 (N10E62).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Watch the northeast limb for an active center to arrive very soon.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind radial
speed increased around midday, from 500 to 650 km/s. A large coronal
hole is now rotating into a geoeffective location. The greater than
2 MeV geosynchronous electron flux was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at generally active levels for the next three days,
punctuated by episodes of minor storm conditions. Effects of the
high speed solar wind should persist through the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 119 Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 26 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 014/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 015/020-020/025-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 55% | 55% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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