Viewing archive of Monday, 23 June 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun

Class M	25%	25%	25%
Class X	05%	05%	05%
Proton	05%	05%	05%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       23 Jun 114
  Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        23 Jun 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  011/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jun  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  012/012-012/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	30%	30%	25%
Minor storm	10%	10%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	35%	35%	30%
Minor storm	15%	15%	10%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

Comments K-indicies The scaling problem with the Boulder magnetometer instrument has been fixed and the instrument has been redesignated as the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices. GOES Protons To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

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