Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 June 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 388 (S03W19) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.5/Sf that occurred at 21/1313Z along with many lesser flares during the interval. This region showed rapid growth during the period with a more than doubling of the penumbral coverage. Region 386 (S07E04) produced several lesser C-class flares today and has been in a steady decay phase since yesterday. The delta magnetic structure is still intact in the leading edge of the spot cluster. Region 387 (N18E23) was fairly quiescent today although it still depicts a beta-gamma magnetic complex. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 386, 387, and 388 all have the potential for producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Sustained periods of southward Bz along with elevated solar wind speeds led to the occasional storming conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible throughout the period due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jun 115
  Predicted    22 Jun-24 Jun  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        21 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jun  018/025
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  012/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%25%
Minor storm 10%20%10%
Major-severe storm 01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm 20%20%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
PLAIN K-Indices: On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. GOES Protons: To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html. 99999

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