Viewing archive of Friday, 20 June 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region 386 (S07E17) produced two low levels C-class flares today along with several B-class flares. The northern portion of the penumbral field appears to have undergone some rotation since yesterday while the delta magnetic structure in the southern leading edge of group has changed little during the period and remains intact. Region 387 (N18E36) was quiescent today although spot coverage and magnetic complexity have both shown growth over the period. Region 389 (S12E14) was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to range from low to moderate levels. Region 386 remains capable of producing an isolated major event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled levels today as effects from the western most recurrent coronal hole wanes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Active conditions may exist especially at high latitudes beginning late on day two with the return of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jun 117
  Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun  115/115/120
  90 Day Mean        20 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  016/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jun  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  010/015-012/015-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%40%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
99999 PLAIN K-Indices: On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. GOES Protons: To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html. 99999

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