Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 June 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Flare activity was limited to several B-class flares. Region 386 (S07E30) lost penumbral coverage over the period although it does retain a delta magnetic structure in the dominant lead spot. Region 387 (N18E49) grew in both penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity since yesterday, a gamma structure is now evident in the trailing portion of the spot group. Newly numbered Region 388 (S03E08) produced a minor B-class flare early in the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 386 remains capable of producing an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active levels today. Minor storm conditions were observed at both middle and high latitudes between 19/0000 and 0300Z due to the influence of a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeded event threshold at 18/2050Z (reached a max of 24 pfu at 19/0450Z), ended at 19/1900Z and after careful review the event is believed to have been the result of the M6.8 x-ray flare from June 17. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through the interval. Minor storm conditions may exist due to a transient passage during the first half of day one in response to the M6.8 x-ray flare from June 17.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
Class M50%50%50%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton25%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jun 123
  Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun  125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        19 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  036/054
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jun  023/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  020/025-020/025-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%40%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
PLAIN GOES Protons: To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html. K-Indices: On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. 99999

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