Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 June 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun

Class M	60%	60%	60%
Class X	20%	20%	20%
Proton	99%	50%	25%
PCAF	in progress

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       18 Jun 120
  Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun  120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        18 Jun 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  030/050
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jun  035/050
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  025/035-020/025-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	40%	50%	50%
Minor storm	30%	20%	20%
Major-severe storm	15%	05%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	40%	50%	50%
Minor storm	40%	30%	30%
Major-severe storm	20%	10%	10%

VII. PLAIN To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) will become the primary satellite for protons. The transition from GOES 8 to GOES 11 was scheduled for 18 June, but has been delayed until 19 June. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html. MAGNETOMETER On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.

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