Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 June 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun

Class M	40%	40%	40%
Class X	20%	20%	20%
Proton	30%	20%	20%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       17 Jun 122
  Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun  125/120/120
  90 Day Mean        17 Jun 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  020/032
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jun  040/050
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  020/030-020/030-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	35%	40%	40%
Minor storm	15%	20%	20%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	40%	50%	50%
Minor storm	20%	25%	25%
Major-severe storm	10%	15%	15%

VII Comment: K-Indices: On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the H-trace on the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. GOES Protons: To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. Beginning 1700 UTC on June 18, GOES 11 (105W) will become the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

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