Viewing archive of Monday, 16 June 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was very high. New Region 386 (S07E71) produced an X1/Sf flare at 15/2356 UTC with an associated Type II (841 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep. SOHO/LACSO imagery indicates a full halo CME, however the majority of the ejecta was off to the east. Region 386 currently indicates a beta magnetic configuration but its proximity to the east limb prevents a detailed analysis of the magnetic complexity. Region 380 (S16W51) has slowed its rate of decay and has developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 386 was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 386 is expected to produce M-class and possibly X-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The source of the minor storm conditions may be associated with the Boulder magnetometer scaling problem (see comment in VII). Solar wind speed was in gradual decay from a peak near 600 km/s early in the day to a minimum of 450 km/s by 1600UTC. Wind speed then increased to 550 km/s by the end of the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with a chance of isolated minor storm levels. Late on day one or early on day two, weak CME shock effects are possible from the X1 event mentioned in IA. A coronal hole high speed flow is expected late on day two and day three with isolated minor storm levels possible.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
Class M50%50%50%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton30%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jun 123
  Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun  125/125/120
  90 Day Mean        16 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  013/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jun  014/023
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  012/015-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%35%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%40%40%
Minor storm15%20%25%
Major-severe storm05%10%15%
VII. Comments: On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the H-trace on the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.

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