Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 June 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the day was a long duration C3 flare that originated from beyond the southeast limb at 1457Z. Other minor C-class activity was predominantly from Region 375 (N12, L=22) beyond the northwest limb. Region 380 (S17W36) continues to decay in area coverage and is now at 180 millionths. New Region 385 (N30E30) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. The region beyond the southeast limb is expected to rotate onto the visible disk on day one and have isolated M-class potential. This region is likely old region 365 which was very active during its last rotation.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The geomagnetic field has been disturbed by a combination of high speed flow effects and weak shocks that were observed yesterday and today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active conditions with isolated minor storming possible early on day one. Activity on day two is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Late on day three a coronal hole is due to rotate into a geoeffective position with unsettled to active conditions expected.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
Class M35%30%30%
Class X15%10%05%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jun 129
  Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun  130/125/125
  90 Day Mean        15 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  018/032
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jun  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  015/015-012/015-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%35%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%40%
Minor storm20%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

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