Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 June 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. An M1.5 flare occurred at 0609Z on the southeast limb. Region 380 (S16W25) has decreased in area coverage and has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration. An eleven degree disappearing solar filament was observed lifting off at near N27W09 at 13/2217Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. The region from beyond the southeast limb is likely to rotate onto the visible disk on day one and have M-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. The onset of the expected coronal hole was marked by a co-rotating interacting region with solar wind speed increasing to near 600 km/s and a 12 hour period of minor storm levels. Late in the period indications of a possible shock passage at the NASA/ACE spacecraft coincided with a major storm period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Isolated minor storm levels are expected on day one due to high speed flow and CME shock effects. By day two activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
Class M45%40%35%
Class X15%10%10%
Proton20%15%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jun 134
  Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun  135/135/130
  90 Day Mean        14 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  008/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jun  035/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  020/025-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%40%30%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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