Viewing archive of Friday, 13 June 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 375 (N12W84) produced an M2.6 at 12/2127 UTC, an M3.1 at 13/0204 UTC, an M1.7/Sf at 13/0437 UTC, and an M1.8/Sf at 13/0645 UTC. The first two M-class flares were optically correlated with SXI imagery. Region 375 decreased in size as it reached the west limb. Region 380 (S16W11) remains stable. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 375 and 380 both remain capable of producing major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind speed decreased to about 400 km/s. After 13/1700Z, solar wind speeds increased to about 450 km/s and total interplanetary magnetic field at L1 showed steady increase. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through day three, with possible active conditions on day one due to elevated solar wind speeds as a coronal hole moves into geoeffective position, and also due to potential CMEs related to major flare and erupting filament activity on 11 June 03.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
Class M75%60%40%
Class X30%20%10%
Proton30%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jun 151
  Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun  145/130/120
  90 Day Mean        13 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  007/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jun  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  015/020-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%30%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%40%35%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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