Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 June 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 380 (S15E56)
produced an M4/2n event at 08/1611 UTC. This region has produced
several C-class flares and shown significant growth since yesterday.
Region 375 (N13W18) continues to produce mid to high level C-class
flares and maintains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 375 and 380 have potential for producing an
isolated X-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. This activity seems to be the result of the expected
coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at unsettled to active conditions for the three
days of the forecast period. The continued elevated solar wind
speeds are expected to produce isolated minor storm conditions
during local nighttime.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jun 153 Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 160/155/155 90 Day Mean 08 Jun 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 026/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 020/025-020/025-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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