Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 June 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 375 (N12W04)
produced an M1/1f flare at 06/2338 UTC with an associated Type II
radio sweep. This region has grown in white light area and sunspot
count and continues to exhibit a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. A new region was numbered today as Region 380
(S16E68).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 375 and 380 both have the potential for
continued C-class and M-class flaring. There is a chance for an
isolated X-class event from Region 375.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily unsettled to active with periods of minor
storm conditions for the next three days. These conditions are
expected due to a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jun to 10 Jun
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jun 133 Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 130/125/120 90 Day Mean 07 Jun 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 020/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 020/025-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun to 10 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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