Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 June 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low with just a couple low level
C-class flares. All of these were from Region 375 (N11E39), which is
the largest group on the disk and was the most active. The group
appeared to be developing a bit of magnetic complexity and was a
beta-gamma group as of forecast file time. New Region 377 (N04E71)
was assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. There is a fair chance, however, for an isolated
M-class flare from Region 375 sometime during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. There was a
minor storm period from 2100-2400 UTC on 03 June. Solar wind data
continue to show the presence of a high speed solar coronal hole
wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high
levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field should be
predominantly active with occasional minor storm periods at high
latitudes as the current disturbance continues.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 106 Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 04 Jun 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 019/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 020/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 020/030-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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