Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 365 (S07W72) produced
an M9/2b flare at 31/0224 UTC. The flare was accompanied by a 1300
sfu radio burst at 2695 MHz, a Type II radio sweep, and a CME
observed by the SOHO spacecraft to be directed mostly towards the
southwest. This region also generated a few C-class subflares during
the past day. Further decay, mostly in penumbral area, is evident
since yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 365 may produce yet another major flare
before it passes the west solar limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. The
most disturbed period occurred from 31/0300-0600 UTC and has since
been quiet to unsettled at most locations. A greater than 10 MeV
proton event started at 31/0440 UTC, reached a 27 pfu peak at
31/0645 UTC, and ended at 31/1440 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance of isolated
storm conditions at local nighttime. The field may become
increasingly disturbed by 03 June due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
| Class M | 80% | 50% | 10% |
| Class X | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Proton | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 May 113 Predicted 01 Jun-03 Jun 110/100/090 90 Day Mean 31 May 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May 036/049 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May 025/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 015/025-015/015-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 60% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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