Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 May 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 365 (S07W72) produced an M9/2b flare at 31/0224 UTC. The flare was accompanied by a 1300 sfu radio burst at 2695 MHz, a Type II radio sweep, and a CME observed by the SOHO spacecraft to be directed mostly towards the southwest. This region also generated a few C-class subflares during the past day. Further decay, mostly in penumbral area, is evident since yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 365 may produce yet another major flare before it passes the west solar limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. The most disturbed period occurred from 31/0300-0600 UTC and has since been quiet to unsettled at most locations. A greater than 10 MeV proton event started at 31/0440 UTC, reached a 27 pfu peak at 31/0645 UTC, and ended at 31/1440 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance of isolated storm conditions at local nighttime. The field may become increasingly disturbed by 03 June due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
Class M80%50%10%
Class X20%10%01%
Proton20%10%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 May 113
  Predicted   01 Jun-03 Jun  110/100/090
  90 Day Mean        31 May 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 May  036/049
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 May  025/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun  015/025-015/015-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%30%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%30%60%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

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