Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 365 (S07W45)
once again produced a major flare early in the period. An X1.1/2b
event occurred at 29/0105Z that had an associated Tenflare, Type IV
and Type II (estimated shock velocity of 1170 km/s.) radio sweeps.
SOHO/LASCO imagery depicts a very symmetric full halo CME resulting
from the event. This region remains extremely complex (a
beta-gamma-delta structure) although the penumbral coverage has
shown little growth during the period. Region 368 (S32W15) also
managed to produce a notable flare today, an M1.5/1f event occurred
at 29/0217Z. This region did show some magnetic growth during the
period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 365 continues to show the potential
to produce major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storm levels. A
recurrent coronal hole was responsible for the initial elevated
conditions. At approximately 29/1155Z the first of two transients
associated with the first two X-class flares from late on the 27th
and early on the 28th passed the NASA/ACE space craft. The second
occurred at approximately 29/1830Z and was responsible for the
severe storm conditions seen late in the period. The greater than
10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit achieved event levels
at 28/2335Z and reached a maximum of 121 pfu at 29/1530Z. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active to major storm levels with
severe storm condition anticipated. Another transient passage is
expected between 30/0600 and 1200Z on day one of the period. The
greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes should remain above threshold
levels through day one of the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 80% | 50% | 25% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 May 138 Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 145/140/135 90 Day Mean 29 May 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 022/036 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 050/060 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 050/060-025/040-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 15% |
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