Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 May 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels. Region 365 (S07W45) once again produced a major flare early in the period. An X1.1/2b event occurred at 29/0105Z that had an associated Tenflare, Type IV and Type II (estimated shock velocity of 1170 km/s.) radio sweeps. SOHO/LASCO imagery depicts a very symmetric full halo CME resulting from the event. This region remains extremely complex (a beta-gamma-delta structure) although the penumbral coverage has shown little growth during the period. Region 368 (S32W15) also managed to produce a notable flare today, an M1.5/1f event occurred at 29/0217Z. This region did show some magnetic growth during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 365 continues to show the potential to produce major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storm levels. A recurrent coronal hole was responsible for the initial elevated conditions. At approximately 29/1155Z the first of two transients associated with the first two X-class flares from late on the 27th and early on the 28th passed the NASA/ACE space craft. The second occurred at approximately 29/1830Z and was responsible for the severe storm conditions seen late in the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit achieved event levels at 28/2335Z and reached a maximum of 121 pfu at 29/1530Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active to major storm levels with severe storm condition anticipated. Another transient passage is expected between 30/0600 and 1200Z on day one of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes should remain above threshold levels through day one of the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
Class M75%75%75%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton80%50%25%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 May 138
  Predicted   30 May-01 Jun  145/140/135
  90 Day Mean        29 May 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 May  022/036
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 May  050/060
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  050/060-025/040-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%50%30%
Minor storm35%25%15%
Major-severe storm35%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%35%
Minor storm35%35%20%
Major-severe storm40%30%15%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

12%

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2020/02/19Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2020:72
Last spotless day:2020/03/30

This day in history*

Solar flares
12002M6.1
21999M5.4
32001M2.0
42003M1.9
52001M1.6
ApG
1199459G3
2200328G1
3200526G2
4200123G1
5200022G1
*since 1994

Social networks