Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 May 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 365 (S07W19) produced two M-class events the largest of which was a long duration M1.6/1f at 0626Z. Region 365 has shown rapid growth since yesterday nearly doubling in area coverage. Mixing polarities are evident in the leader spots forming a beta-gamma-delta configuration. Analysis of LASCO imagery indicates a slow halo CME associated with the M1 flare from 26/1637Z and a faster halo CME associated with the M1.6 flare mentioned above. Estimated plane of sky speed for the fast CME was 700 km/s. Three new regions were numbered today: Region 371 (S13W10), Region 372 (S14W03), and Region 373 (N08E81).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 365 is expected to produce C-class flare and isolated M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. Elevated solar wind speed near 500 km/s resulted in a disturbed geomagnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A coronal hole high speed flow is expected on day one of the period. Weak CME shock effects are possible on day two and day three of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
Class M20%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 May 129
  Predicted   28 May-30 May  135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        27 May 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 May  013/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 May  020/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  020/025-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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