Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 365
(S07W19) produced two M-class events the largest of which was a long
duration M1.6/1f at 0626Z. Region 365 has shown rapid growth since
yesterday nearly doubling in area coverage. Mixing polarities are
evident in the leader spots forming a beta-gamma-delta
configuration. Analysis of LASCO imagery indicates a slow halo CME
associated with the M1 flare from 26/1637Z and a faster halo CME
associated with the M1.6 flare mentioned above. Estimated plane of
sky speed for the fast CME was 700 km/s. Three new regions were
numbered today: Region 371 (S13W10), Region 372 (S14W03), and
Region 373 (N08E81).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 365 is expected to produce C-class
flare and isolated M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. Elevated
solar wind speed near 500 km/s resulted in a disturbed geomagnetic
field. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A coronal hole
high speed flow is expected on day one of the period. Weak CME
shock effects are possible on day two and day three of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
| Class M | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 May 129 Predicted 28 May-30 May 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 27 May 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May 013/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May 020/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 020/025-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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