Viewing archive of Monday, 26 May 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 365 (S06W06) produce two M-class events with the largest one an M1.9/1f at 0550Z. This region also produced a long duration C7 flare at 1744Z. LASCO C2 imagery indicates narrow CME's associated with the two M-class events but neither one has an Earth directed component. Region 365 continues to grow in area coverage but the rate of growth has slowed since yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 365 is expected to produce C-class flares and has the potential for isolated M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Residual effects from a high speed stream produced active conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A coronal hole high speed stream is expected to produce minor storming on day one and day two of the period. By day three, conditions are expected to at quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
Class M20%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 May 125
  Predicted   27 May-29 May  125/125/120
  90 Day Mean        26 May 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 May  014/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 May  018/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May  025/030-020/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm15%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm15%10%05%

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