Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 May 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 368 (S33E37) produced the largest event of the period, a C3.0/Sf flare that occurred at 25/1754Z. This region exhibits a simple Hax alpha magnetic structure. Region 365 (S08E08) has shown rapid growth throughout the period in penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity. Late in the period this region produced its first reported flare, a B5.2 x-ray flare occurring at 25/2036Z. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 365 has become capable of producing C-class flares, if growth continues at this rate an isolated M-class flare may be a possibility over the next 24-48 hours.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. An oscillating Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field allowed for two consecutive periods of minor storm conditions at both the middle and high latitudes during local nighttime hours. Elevated conditions are due to a high speed stream coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active levels through the forecast period. Minor storm conditions are possible especially at local nighttime hours. Isolated major storm intervals are possible on day two of the period. The elevated activity is expected in anticipation of yet another recurrent high speed stream coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 May 121
  Predicted   26 May-28 May  125/125/120
  90 Day Mean        25 May 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  014/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 May  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  020/025-025/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%45%40%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%15%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%50%45%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%15%10%

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