Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest
event was a B7 flare at 1428Z on the southwest limb. The most
likely source is Region 357 (S16W99) from beyond the west limb. The
remaining regions on the visible disk are small and have simple
magnetic configurations.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Elevated
solar wind speed resulted in an isolated period of minor storm
levels during local nighttime hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Elevated solar wind
speeds are likely to result in isolated active conditions and
possibly isolated minor storm levels on day one of the period. By
day three, another coronal high speed stream is expected to be in a
favorable geo-effective position with active to minor storm levels
possible.
III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 May 117 Predicted 25 May-27 May 120/120/125 90 Day Mean 24 May 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 018/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 012/015-015/020-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 55% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
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