Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 May 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 362 (S11W15) produced a C4 flare at 0704Z. This region remains relatively unchanged since yesterday. Region 362 has an east-west inversion line and maintains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Three new regions were numbered today: Region 366 (N11E62), Region 367 (S14E69), and Region 368 (S32E76).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Regions 362 and 364 continue to have C-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels with one period of quiet conditions. Solar wind speed decreased slightly from yesterday but has remained elevated near 500 km/s due to a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance of minor storming at local nighttime hours. Coronal hole high speed stream effects are expected to continue through day two of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
Class M 15%15%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 May 118
  Predicted    23 May-25 May  125/130/135
  90 Day Mean        22 May 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  013/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 May  025/027
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  020/020-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm 20%15%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%40%
Minor storm 25%25%20%
Major-severe storm 15%15%10%

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