Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 362 (S11W15)
produced a C4 flare at 0704Z. This region remains relatively
unchanged since yesterday. Region 362 has an east-west inversion
line and maintains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Three new
regions were numbered today: Region 366 (N11E62), Region 367
(S14E69), and Region 368 (S32E76).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 362 and 364 continue to have C-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels with one
period of quiet conditions. Solar wind speed decreased slightly
from yesterday but has remained elevated near 500 km/s due to a
coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance of minor
storming at local nighttime hours. Coronal hole high speed stream
effects are expected to continue through day two of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 May 118 Predicted 23 May-25 May 125/130/135 90 Day Mean 22 May 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 013/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 025/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 020/020-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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