Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 May 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 361 (N09E39) and Region 362 (S10E77).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with possible increase in activity over the next few days due to active regions emerging from the east limb. New region 362 may produce isolated flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels due to a high speed solar wind stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the next three days. Solar wind speeds should continue to reduce over the next few days, and may cause isolated minor storm levels on day one.
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
Class M10%15%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 May 099
  Predicted   16 May-18 May  105/110/120
  90 Day Mean        15 May 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  017/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 May  015/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  010/015-010/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
VII. Comments The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. As of 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 became the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

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