Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity consisted of a few C-class flares, all from either
Region 348 (S36W90) or Region 349 (S14W99). Both of these regions
have rotated beyond the west limb. The remaining solar active
regions are small, stable, and unimpressive. GOES-12 solar x-ray
imagery continues to show a new region just behind east limb at
about N17. An 11 degree filament near S34W14 disappeared between
2145 UTC and 2224 UTC on 7 May.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days. There is a slight but declining chance for
an isolated M-class event from Region 348 or Region 349 from behind
the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was initially at unsettled levels but has been
at active to minor storm levels since 08/0000 UTC and continuing
through the end of the reporting period (08/2100 UTC). The
geomagnetic field continues to be buffeted by a persistent high
speed solar wind stream with velocities in the 700 to 800 km/s range
and Bz values varying between -8 nT to +1 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes continue to be at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active. Solar observations indicate an
extended coronal hole structure in the southern hemisphere which is
likely to keep activity enhanced for at least the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
| Class M | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 May 101 Predicted 09 May-11 May 095/095/100 90 Day Mean 08 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 024/036 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 020/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 020/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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