Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 May 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 349 (S15W71) produced a long duration C3 event at 06/0148 UTC which was visible in the GOES Solar x-ray imagery. Region 348 (S34W68) and 349 still maintain a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 348 and 349 are expected to continue low C-class flares with a slight chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm conditions. Solar wind speeds increased throughout the past 24 hours to above 700 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component was oriented southward for extended periods. The elevated geomagnetic activity is believed to be the result of a recurrent coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm conditions for 07 May as the coronal hole high speed stream continues. Quiet to unsettled conditions should return on 08 and 09 May as a transition is made out of the high speed solar wind flow.
III. Event Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
Class M60%50%40%
Class X10%05%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 May 129
  Predicted   07 May-09 May  115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        06 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  011/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 May  022/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  020/025-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%30%
Minor storm30%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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