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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Regions 348 (S35W55) and 349 (S14W60) have produced several low level C-class events. Region 348 has developed slightly during the period while 349 has remained mostly unchanged. New Region 355 (N12E45) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 348 and 349 both have the potential to produce an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quit to active levels. A transit flow in the solar wind speeds of over 650 km/s were responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. Isolated minor storm conditions are also possible for the forecast period. These conditions are expected due to the onset of a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
Class M60%50%50%
Class X10%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 May 129
  Predicted   06 May-08 May  120/115/115
  90 Day Mean        05 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 May  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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