Viewing archive of Monday, 5 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Regions 348 (S35W55) and
349 (S14W60) have produced several low level C-class events. Region
348 has developed slightly during the period while 349 has remained
mostly unchanged. New Region 355 (N12E45) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 348 and 349 both have the potential to produce
an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quit to active levels. A transit
flow in the solar wind speeds of over 650 km/s were responsible for
the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. Isolated minor
storm conditions are also possible for the forecast period. These
conditions are expected due to the onset of a recurrent coronal
hole.
III. Event Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| Class M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 129 Predicted 06 May-08 May 120/115/115 90 Day Mean 05 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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