Viewing archive of Friday, 2 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 345
(S17W34) produced a long duration M1/Sf flare at 0308Z. This region
has developed in magnetic complexity and is now a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Region 349 (S13W21) is still the largest
region on the disk and has remained relatively stable over the past
twenty-four hours. Region 344(N15W67) continues its gradual decay
and has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 345 and 349 have the potential for
M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels.
Elevated solar wind speed combined with a period of southward Bz
resulted in one period of isolated major storm levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to isolated active conditions. On day one,
active conditions are expected during local nighttime hours and the
solar wind velocity is expected to gradually decline. Isolated
active conditions are possible on day three as another coronal hole
rotates into a geo-effective position.
III. Event Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 May 144 Predicted 03 May-05 May 135/130/120 90 Day Mean 02 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 029/040 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 023/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 015/015-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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