Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 April 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 349 (S13E07) produced a C3/Sf flare at 29/2349Z along with a number of other minor C-class flares. This region continues steady growth and there is some weak polarity mixing in the southern intermediate spot. Region 344 (N15W41) has entered a decay phase but retains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 350 (S12W59) and Region 351 (N06E76).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 349 has the potential for M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. Most of the activity was at active to minor storm levels. Periods of southward Bz early in the day resulted in an isolated period of major storm levels. Solar wind speed gradually increased throughout the day to near 650 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. A combination of transient flow and coronal hole high speed flow are expected to keep the geomagnetic field disturbed for day one and day two of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Apr 154
  Predicted   01 May-03 May  150/145/140
  90 Day Mean        30 Apr 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  013/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Apr  033/039
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  015/025-015/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%45%30%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%05%

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