Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 349 (S13E07)
produced a C3/Sf flare at 29/2349Z along with a number of other
minor C-class flares. This region continues steady growth and there
is some weak polarity mixing in the southern intermediate spot.
Region 344 (N15W41) has entered a decay phase but retains its
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Two new regions were numbered
today: Region 350 (S12W59) and Region 351 (N06E76).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 349 has the potential for M-class
events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. Most
of the activity was at active to minor storm levels. Periods of
southward Bz early in the day resulted in an isolated period of
major storm levels. Solar wind speed gradually increased throughout
the day to near 650 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. A combination of
transient flow and coronal hole high speed flow are expected to keep
the geomagnetic field disturbed for day one and day two of the
period.
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 154 Predicted 01 May-03 May 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 013/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 033/039 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 015/025-015/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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