Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 337
(S16W67) produced an M1/1f flare at 0459Z. Region 337 appears to
have lost its delta magnetic configuration since producing the M1
flare, but continues to produce minor C-class flares. Region 349
(S13E20) has exhibited significant growth in area and spot count
over the last twenty-four hours, and now exceeds 40 spots and over
500 millionths of white light coverage. This region has produced a
number of minor C-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 337 and 349 have the potential for
M-class events. Region 349 could produce a major event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind
velocity remains elevated near 550 km/s. Transient flow has
produced periods of southward Bz that resulted in isolated active
and minor storm conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active. A returning coronal hole is
expected to rotate into a geo-effective position on day one of the
period and may produce active to isolated minor storm levels during
the period.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 155 Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 155/150/140 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 009/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 012/015-015/025-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
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