Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 April 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. An abundance of activity was observed today, most of which occurred in Region 338 (N18W71). Region 338 produced a very impulsive M7.0 x-ray flare at 26/0807Z. This region also produced an M2.1/1f flare at 26/0058Z and an M2.1/Sn flare at 26/0306Z along with multiple C-class events. The delta magnetic complex remains intact and penumbral coverage appears to be oscillating with this regions flare production. Region 344 (N16E13) has yet to produce any flare activity although the white-light penumbral coverage and the magnetic complexity of this region have shown rapid growth during the past 24 hours. Yesterday, this region was a simple beta complex which has since developed into a beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. Region 337 (S14W26) was quiescent through most of the period. Regions 347 (S20E36), 348 (S36E58), and 349 (S14E60) were newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338 remains capable of producing an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Influences from yesterdays favorably positioned coronal hole have waned as the solar wind speed has dropped to approximately 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels. Minor storm conditions are possible with the onset of a favorably positioned coronal hole on days one and two. Elevated field levels are possible through the interval due to weak transient passages resulting from the flare activity of the past several days.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
Class M 70%70%50%
Class X 15%15%05%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Apr 144
  Predicted    27 Apr-29 Apr  150/145/140
  90 Day Mean        26 Apr 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr  019/032
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Apr  010/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  020/025-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm 20%15%15%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm 30%20%10%
Major-severe storm 15%10%05%

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