Viewing archive of Friday, 25 April 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels today. The largest flare of the period was an M1/Sf which occurred at 25/0540Z from Region 346 (N16E61) and had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 814 km/s. There seems to be little magnetic complexity to this region based on a single Hsx spot seen in white-light. Region 337 (S14W13) appears to have changed little since yesterday and remains a beta-gamma magnetic complex. Region 338 (N18W58) produced the majority of the flare activity throughout the interval which was limited to C-class events. Magnetically, this region appears to be in a decay phase as a single delta complex remains apparent verses the several complexes analyzed earlier in the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 338 remains capable of producing M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active to minor storm levels. High speed solar wind speeds along with embedded transient activity are believed to be responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels with isolated major storm conditions possible throughout the period. High speed coronal hole flow may continue to be enhanced by transient activity for the entire interval. A weak CME impact from the M5 flare on April 23 is possible on day one. Further CME effects are possible on day two resulting from the M3 flare that occurred on 24 April. The M1 that occurred today may have a very weak impact late on day two into day three.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Apr 144
  Predicted   26 Apr-28 Apr  145/150/145
  90 Day Mean        25 Apr 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr  024/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Apr  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%45%30%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%45%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm20%20%15%

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