Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 April 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels this period. Region 338 (N18W45) produced an M3/1n at 24/1253Z with associated Type II (830 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. A partial halo CME was also detected on LASCO imagery. Region 339 (N16,L=337) was active during the period, producing several C-class flares as it crossed the west limb, the largest being a C8 flare at 24/1553Z. No significant changes were observed in the remaining active regions. New Regions 344 (N16E39), 345 (S17E74), and 346 (N16E74) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338 may produce futher M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. Elevated solar wind speeds up to near 600 km/s are responsible for the disturbed periods. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. High speed coronal hole flow may be enhanced by transient flow over the next three days. Weak CME impact from an M5 flare on April 23 are possible on days one and two. A CME impact produced by today's M3 flare may arrive on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
Class M40%40%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Apr 128
  Predicted   25 Apr-27 Apr  130/135/135
  90 Day Mean        24 Apr 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr  013/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Apr  020/023
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  020/020-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%40%
Minor storm35%35%35%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

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