Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 April 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels this period. Region 338 (N18W32) produced an M5/1n flare at 23/0106Z. Type II (513 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, and a 380 sfu tenflare were associated with this event. A partial halo CME was also detected on LASCO imagery. An M2/1f flare also occurred in this region at 23/1556Z. This complex region continues to develop in both size and magnetic complexity. Region 339 (N16W84) was quite active as it approaches the west limb. It produced several C-class flares, the largest being a C5 flare at 23/1213Z. No significant changes were observed in the remaining active regions. New Region 343 (N06E60) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338 maintains potential for further M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. Elevated solar wind speeds near 500 km/s are responsible for the disturbed periods. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Ongoing high speed coronal hole flow will likely be enhanced by transient flow over the next three days. Weak impact from the April 22, M2 flare and CME are possible on day one. There is a higher probability for CME impacts on days two and three from the M5 and associated CME that occurred early this period.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Apr 133
  Predicted    24 Apr-26 Apr  135/140/145
  90 Day Mean        23 Apr 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr  013/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Apr  015/020
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr  020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%30%
Minor storm 20%30%20%
Major-severe storm 05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%50%40%
Minor storm 30%35%30%
Major-severe storm 10%15%10%

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