Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 337 (S14E67) which
produced the most recent activity has been stable for the last 24
hours. Region 338 (N17E28) was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geo-synchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Apr 112 Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 115/120/120 90 Day Mean 19 Apr 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 018/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 013/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 010/010-007/010-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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