Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest
event was B4 flare at 15/1356Z on the west limb near Region 330
(N09W86). Region 334 (S08E02) produced a couple of minor B-class
events and exhibited a number of point brightenings and plage
fluctuations. The only other significant activity was an eleven
degree disappearing solar filament that lifted off near N21E29.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Regions 330 and 334 have the potential for
C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar
wind velocity was elevated near 575 km/s and a prolonged period of
southward Bz produced active conditions for most of the day with one
period of isolated minor storm levels. By the end of the day Bz
shifted northward and activity has subsided to unsettled levels.
Greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels. A large southern
coronal hole has rotated into a geo-effective position and is
expected to produce active conditions over the next few days. There
is a possibility of isolated minor storm conditions during the
period.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 101 Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 095/090/095 90 Day Mean 15 Apr 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 013/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 025/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 015/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
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