Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity reached moderate levels. Rapidly growing
Region 326 (S12W91) produced an impulsive M2/1f flare at 09/2329
UTC. This event included a narrow CME as well as a weak Type II. The
region has since quietly rotated beyond the limb. New Region 334
(S08E69) rotated fully into view.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly active to minor storm levels. A
high-speed solar wind stream has been buffeting the magnetosphere
all day, with speeds in the 700 km/s range. Southward IMF of 10 nT
has occurred for short periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at active to minor storm conditions for another
24 hours. Unsettled to active conditions are anticipated the last 2
days of the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Apr 103 Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 105/100/095 90 Day Mean 10 Apr 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 014/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 020/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 020/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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