Viewing archive of Monday, 7 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 324 (S13W85)
produced a C2 flare at 07/0304Z. Region 324 was to be the source of
the majority of activity during the past twenty-four hours. Region
324 continues to simplify and decay as it transits the west limb.
Region 325 (N15W63) and Region 331 (S07W34) are the two largest
regions on the disk but are relatively unchanged since yesterday.
New Region 332 (N11E58) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 324, 325, and 330 (N07E38) continue to
represent C-class potential with a slight chance of a minor M-class
event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Greater than
2 MeV electrons at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active
conditions. A weak CME shock from the M1 event on 04 April is
expected to arrive late today or early on day one. A returning
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to produce unsettled to
isolated minor storm levels on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 116 Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 110/105/100 90 Day Mean 07 Apr 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 015/015-012/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 03% | 07% |
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