Viewing archive of Monday, 7 April 2003
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 324 (S13W85)
produced a C2 flare at 07/0304Z. Region 324 was to be the source of
the majority of activity during the past twenty-four hours. Region
324 continues to simplify and decay as it transits the west limb.
Region 325 (N15W63) and Region 331 (S07W34) are the two largest
regions on the disk but are relatively unchanged since yesterday.
New Region 332 (N11E58) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 324, 325, and 330 (N07E38) continue to
represent C-class potential with a slight chance of a minor M-class
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Greater than
2 MeV electrons at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active
conditions. A weak CME shock from the M1 event on 04 April is
expected to arrive late today or early on day one. A returning
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to produce unsettled to
isolated minor storm levels on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 116
Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 110/105/100
90 Day Mean 07 Apr 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 015/015-012/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
|A. Middle Latitudes|
|B. High Latitudes|
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.
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