Viewing archive of Monday, 7 April 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 324 (S13W85) produced a C2 flare at 07/0304Z. Region 324 was to be the source of the majority of activity during the past twenty-four hours. Region 324 continues to simplify and decay as it transits the west limb. Region 325 (N15W63) and Region 331 (S07W34) are the two largest regions on the disk but are relatively unchanged since yesterday. New Region 332 (N11E58) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Regions 324, 325, and 330 (N07E38) continue to represent C-class potential with a slight chance of a minor M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Greater than 2 MeV electrons at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active conditions. A weak CME shock from the M1 event on 04 April is expected to arrive late today or early on day one. A returning coronal hole high speed stream is expected to produce unsettled to isolated minor storm levels on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
Class M20%20%15%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Apr 116
  Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr  110/105/100
  90 Day Mean        07 Apr 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Apr  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  015/015-012/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%30%
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%40%
Minor storm15%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%03%07%
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.

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