Viewing archive of Friday, 4 April 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

III. Event Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr

Class M	45%	35%	25%
Class X	10%	05%	05%
Proton	10%	05%	05%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       04 Apr 153
  Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr  155/150/145
  90 Day Mean        04 Apr 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  011/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Apr  024/026
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  015/020-012/015-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	40%	40%	35%
Minor storm	20%	15%	10%
Major-severe storm	10%	05%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	55%	45%	40%
Minor storm	30%	15%	15%
Major-severe storm	15%	10%	10%

VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.

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