Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 April 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. There were only two C-class flares from Regions 323 (S08W43) and 318 (S12W65).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a small chance for an isolated M-Class flare from either Region 323 (S08W43), Region 325 (N12E14), or Region 324 (S11W08).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels, with occasional major storming at high latitudes. The high speed stream that began early on 30 March continued during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The high speed stream which has impacted earth for the previous two days will pass by day two.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Apr 153
  Predicted   02 Apr-04 Apr  155/150/145
  90 Day Mean        01 Apr 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar  015/031
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Apr  017/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  010/012-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%30%30%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.

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