Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 April 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr

Class M	30%	30%	30%
Class X	05%	05%	05%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       01 Apr 153
  Predicted   02 Apr-04 Apr  155/150/145
  90 Day Mean        01 Apr 134

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar  015/031
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Apr  017/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  010/012-010/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	40%	30%	30%
Minor storm	10%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	45%	30%	30%
Minor storm	15%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	10%	05%	05%

VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.

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