Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 March 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was low. Weak C-class flares were
observed in Regions 321 (N05W03) and 323 (S08W15). The rapid growth
and considerable C-class activity observed yesterday in Regions 318
(S13W34) and 323 has ended. Region 323, the more impressive of the
two, evolved into a beta-gamma region with near 250 millionths of
white light areal coverage. No significant developments were
observed in the remainder of the disk or limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for a low M-class flare from Regions 321 or
323.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with isolated minor
storm periods at high latitudes. Solar wind signatures early this
period indicate a transition from transient flow to a high speed
coronal hole stream. Solar wind speed began the period near 400
km/s, but gradually increased to near 650 km/s by end of period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm
periods. A coronal hole high speed stream will buffet the
magnetosphere for most of the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
| Class M | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Mar 155 Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 30 Mar 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 017/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 015/020-012/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 45% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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