Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 March 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Weak C-class flares were observed in Regions 321 (N05W03) and 323 (S08W15). The rapid growth and considerable C-class activity observed yesterday in Regions 318 (S13W34) and 323 has ended. Region 323, the more impressive of the two, evolved into a beta-gamma region with near 250 millionths of white light areal coverage. No significant developments were observed in the remainder of the disk or limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance for a low M-class flare from Regions 321 or 323.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. Solar wind signatures early this period indicate a transition from transient flow to a high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind speed began the period near 400 km/s, but gradually increased to near 650 km/s by end of period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods. A coronal hole high speed stream will buffet the magnetosphere for most of the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
Class M40%35%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Mar 155
  Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr  155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        30 Mar 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  017/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Mar  018/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  015/020-012/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%40%
Minor storm20%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%45%50%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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